CFT is pig review: lower prices slashed its possibility Farmers do not panic selling

Article source: China feed industry information network

According to the feed industry information network and hui tong data research, data statistics, September 7, 2016, the province outside the ternary pig average price of 18.64 yuan/kg, is yesterday, down 0.03 yuan/kg, was prices over the same period last week (August 31) rose 0.02 yuan/kg.

Today the national 27 provinces, municipalities directly under the central government within the scope of a total of 7 provinces prices rise, prices fell 7 provinces. The price of yunnan, a rise of 0.06 yuan/kg in the yesterday at 19.98 yuan/kg; The national minimum price for xinjiang, fell to 0.04 yuan/kg to 0.04 yuan/kg. Sichuan rose 0.06 yuan/kg, shaanxi rose 0.06 yuan/kg, hebei rose 0.05 yuan/kg, heilongjiang rose 0.04 yuan/kg, rose slightly. Shandong down 0.04 yuan/kg, jilin down 0.03 yuan/kg, henan down 0.02 yuan/kg, very slightly. Jilin, hunan, and flat yesterday.

Prices shock adjustment. Heilongjiang 8.6 8.8 yuan/kg. Zhejiang mainstream price rose to 9.9-10 yuan/jin, a rise of 0.02 yuan/kg in the yesterday. Tianjin in 9-9.2 yuan/kg. Hebei mainstream price has dropped to 8.8 9.1 yuan/kg. 9 - henan mainstream price 9.2 yuan/kg, shandong mainstream price 8.8 9.1 yuan/kg. Guangdong 9.5 9.7 yuan/kg, fujian fuzhou, zhangzhou, 9.5 to 9.7 yuan/kg.

Game fierce market supply and demand, prices shock adjustment. Is slaughtering enterprises demand will remain, but it is the Mid-Autumn festival first ready for the inevitable, the market is good still exist, combined with the current amount of recovery was slow to numerous sows, pig source market is still tight, had a lower risk of prices fell sharply, farmers do not panic, maintain the normal market rhythm, avoid the focus before selling suppress prices rebound.

【 summary 】 the recent hot industry to enter the industry generally bullish market outlook since prices in September, but bullish also think the prices surged probability is not big, whole is given priority to with on the basis of high small rise. Modest rebound to become the industry more recognition, so so shortage in supply, why the afternoon pig prices for a modest rebound is difficult to have in space? Actually about industry opinion is the current prices are already in the pig falling stage of the cycle only capacity recovery was slow, running the length of the extended the prices high, lead to later drop speed will be slow. Small retail this year at the delisting, repair and wait-and-see stage, and scale cultivation enterprise although has expansion layout, but need a cycle. Combined with the increasingly strict environmental protection efforts, cause most breeding areas are limited, the ban, and the process is a nationwide, regional layout again lead to certain hampers pig amount of recovery.

After entering in September, the greatest good is the improvement on demand. Near the Mid-Autumn festival, demand will gradually increase, combined with the National Day pick up behind, to say the least the grip impact on demand is gradually reduced. And as the weather turns cool, big pig's demand will increase, so the farmers to keep rational, but don't worry too much, don't sell and pressure bar. Industry analysis moves in recent days, we can clearly feel prices rise, market consolidation trend. And the thought as the weather turns cool, pig long speed is accelerated, increased supply, combined with the slaughtering enterprises have a need to control costs, the tendency of the associated demand is expected to be stronger, but the afternoon notion of a seller's market also gradually strengthened, so the game will be further intensified. Qiu dong season pig disease risk also increases, suggested that the farmers do raising management and disease prevention and control, optimal partial such heavy pig, do not excessive pressure bar.

As September universities demand side will be the beginning of the recovered slightly, which may push a modest rebound in prices, but the space is very limited. In April after the increase of survival rate of piglets will be conducted to the living pigs supply, pork consumption so in December before the season, after a brief to modestly prices could still fell again. In addition to raising early survival rate of piglets, which could lead to an increase in supply slightly restriction, pork imports is still contain prices rise further, the main factors and the impact on prices is likely to continue until the end of the year. Without big accidental factors appear, is rarely showed a sharp rise of prices before the Spring Festival